The primary season has been a jungle – from the Republicans who had 16 candidates at one point to the Democrats who started with five. Now we’ve reached a midway point, with the last primaries scheduled on June 7 and June 14. So, who still has a chance? Let’s take a look.
On the Republican side, the candidates have been whittled down to Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich. At this point Donald Trump has a sizable lead, but Ted Cruz is still well within range to surpass Trump. John Kasich may be able to keep up or tie, but it’s very unlikely based off of the polling data. He is currently a distant third in national polls at 20 percent, trailing Donald Trump by 25 percent and Ted Cruz by 8 percent. He’s also behind in the delegate count by over 300 delegates, making it so that his campaign must win around 75 percent of the remaining delegates.
Current polling data has Trump still winning in most states, but Ted Cruz is catching up to him in some. Trump’s home state is New York, which should go to him handily. John Kasich won his home state of Ohio, which should give him some momentum, but may not be enough to get him far, especially this late in the game.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are still battling it out. Clinton has the clear advantage and Sanders has lost momentum after failing to capitalize a significant win in Michigan. Sanders still has a chance to tie or win, but he has to win almost every state in the West and Central United States.
Current polling data has Clinton winning the big delegate states, including California and New York. While polling was very far off in Michigan, these states may still be securely in Clinton’s hands due to New York being her home state and California typically being fairly establishment, also known as the party elite who decide the platform and ideology of the party. However, California also has a strong liberal base that may not see Clinton as liberal enough for the presidency. Sanders is still polling well in the smaller states, but he has to win big in these states in order to get the delegate count he needs.
Here are the current delegate counts:
Republicans (1,237 to win)
Donald Trump: 752
Ted Cruz: 463
Marco Rubio (dropped out): 173
John Kasich: 144
Democrats (2,383 to win)
Hillary Clinton: 1,266. Superdelegates: 471
Bernie Sanders: 1,038. Superdelegates: 31